Nathan S. Balke Webpage

Department of Economics

Southern Methodist University


CV, January 2020


Recent Working papers:


            “Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Credit Frictions and Uncertainty” (with Enrique Martinez-Garcia and Zheng Zeng), May 2019





“Oil Supply Shocks and the U.S. Economy: An Estimated DSGE Model,” (with Stephen P.A. Brown), Energy Policy, 116 (May), 2018, 357-372.


“Incorporating the Beige Book into a Quantitative Index of Economic Activity” (with Mike Fulmer and Ren Zhang),  Journal of Forecasting, 36 (5), 2017, 497–514.

 “Fuel Subsidies, the Oil Market and the World Economy," (with Michael Plante and Mine Yucel), The Energy Journal, 36 (Special Issue), 2015, 99-127..


“A Bayesian Examination of Weak Identification in Stock Price Decompositions,” (with Jun Ma and Mark Wohar), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19 (4), 2015, 728-752.


“Credit Demand, Credit Supply, and Economic Activity,” (with Zheng Zeng), B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Contributions, 13 (1), 2013, 643-680.


 “The Contribution of Economic Fundamentals to Movements in Exchange Rates” (with Jun Ma and Mark Wohar), Journal of International Economics, 30 (1), 2013, 1-16.


“Sectoral Effects of Aggregate ShocksAdvances in Econometrics, 30, 2012, 299-357.


 “Market Fundamentals vs Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices: A Bayesian Analysis (with Mark Wohar), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24 (1), 2009, 35-75.


“The Relative Price Effects of Monetary Shocks,” (with Mark A. Wynne), Journal of Macroeconomics, 29 (1), 2007, 19-36.


“What Drives Stock Prices?  Identifying the Determinants of Stock Price Movements” (with Mark Wohar), Southern Economic Journal, 74 (1), July 2006, 55-78.


“Low Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State Space Decomposition,”(with Mark Wohar), Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(4), November 2002, 649-667.


“Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy: Where Does the Asymmetry Originate?”  (with Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yόcel), Energy Journal, 23(3) 2002, 27-52.


“How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively,” (with D’Ann Petersen), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34 (1), February 2002, 114-136.


“Credit and Economics Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks, ”Review of Economics and Statistics,  May 2000, 344-349.


"An Equilibrium Analysis of Relative Price Changes and Aggregate Inflation," (with M. Wynne), Journal of Monetary Economics, 45(2), April 2000, 269-292.


"Nonlinear Dynamics and Covered Interest Rate Parity," (with M. Wohar), Empirical Economics, 23 (4), 1998, 535-559.


"Threshold Cointegration," (with T. Fomby), International Economic Review, 38(3), August 1997, 627-646.


"Are Deep Recessions Followed by Strong Recoveries?  Results for the G-7 Countries," (with M. Wynne), Applied Economics, 28(7), July 1996, 889-897.


"Recessions and Recoveries in Real Business Cycle Models," (with M. Wynne), Economic Inquiry, 33 (4), October 1995, 640-663.


"Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations:  Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series,"  (with T. Fomby), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1994, 181-200.


"The Algebra of Price Stability," (with K. Emery), Journal of Macroeconomics, 16(1), Winter 1994, 77-97.


"Detecting Level Shifts in Time Series," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, January 1993, 81-92.


"Poverty and Change in the Macroeconomy: A Dynamic Macroeconometric Model" (with D. Slottje), Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993, 117-122.


"Are Deep Recessions Followed by Strong Recoveries?" (with M. Wynne), Economics Letters, 39(2), June 1992, 183-189.


"A Theory of Fed Watching in a Macroeconomic Policy Game" (with J. Haslag), International Economic Review, 33(3), August 1992, 619-628.


"Shifting Trends, Segmented Trends, and Infrequent Permanent Shocks" (with T. Fomby), Journal of Monetary Economics, 28(1), August 1991, 61-86.


"Infrequent Permanent Shocks and the Finite-Sample Performance of Unit Root Tests," (with T. Fomby), Economic Letters, 36, 1991, 269-273.


"Partisanship Theory, Macroeconomic Outcomes, and Endogenous Elections," Southern Economic Journal 57(4), April 1991, 920-935.


"Variability and Forecastability of Central Bank Preferences in a Monetary Policy Game," (with J. Haslag), Journal of Macroeconomics, 13, Summer 1991, 535-541.


"The Rational Timing of Parliamentary Elections," Public Choice, 65, 1990, 201-216.


"The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Evidence," (with Robert J. Gordon), Journal of Political Economy, 97 (1), February 1989, 38-92.




"Explaining Stock Price Movements: Is There a Case for Fundamentals?" (with Mark Wohar), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review, Fourth Quarter, 2002.


"Evaluation the Eleventh District Beige Book” (with Mine Yucel), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review, First Quarter, 2001.


“Book review of State Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications, by Chang-Jin Kim and Charles R. NelsonJournal of Economic Literature, 2001.


"Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices: An Asymmetric Relationship?" (with Stephen P. Brown and Mine Yucel), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, First Quarter, 1998, 2-11.


"Supply Shocks and the Distribution of Price Changes," (with M. Wynne), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter, 1996, 10-18.


"Inflation and Monetary Restraint: Too Little, Too Late?" (with K. Emery), Southwest Economy, 1995, 3-5.


"Understanding the Price Puzzle," (with K. Emery), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, First Quarter, 1995, 15-26.


"The Federal Funds Rate as an Indicator of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the 1980s," (with K. Emery), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, First Quarter, 1994, 1-16.


"A Macroeconometric Model of Income Inequality in the U.S.” (with D. Slottje), in The Changing Distribution of Income in an Open U.S. Economy, edited by Jeffrey Bergstrand, Thomas Cosimano, and Richard Sheehan, North-Holland Press, 1994, 243-278.


"Recessions and Recoveries," (with M. Wynne), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, First Quarter, 1993, 1-18.


"The United States Faces a Weak Recovery," Southwest Economy, September/October 1991, 7-8.