/* This program was written as part of Ben Reid's internship course taken in the Fall of
   2004.  This program is attempting to reproduce the Fed Reaction Function that
   Gerald D. Cohen, Senior Economist, of Merrill Lynch reported on in a Merrill Lynch
   "Economic Commentary" dated December 8, 2003.  All of the variables that ML used are
   reproduced here except for the Conference Board's index of leading indicators.  It was
   only available by subscription.  Prof. Tom Fomby, supervisor, did not think that
   it was essential for the purpose of the internship.  The main purpose is to demonstrate
   the ordered multinomial logit modeling technique.  */

data fedfunds;
   format date monyy5.;
   input date fedtarget	demand tenyear inflation unemp capacity fedbias sandp meetings change;
   datalines;
Jan84	9.38	0.092464817	11.67	0.09	8	79.6	0.12	166.39	1	0
Feb84	9.38	0.092464817	11.84	0.06	7.8	79.7	0.04	157.7	1	0
Mar84	9.77	0.092464817	12.32	0.04	7.8	80.2	0.48	157.44	1	1
Apr84	10.46	0.092464817	12.63	0.05	7.7	80.5	0.57	157.6	1	1
May84	10.5	0.092464817	13.41	0.02	7.4	80.9	0.04	156.55	1	1
Jun84	10.7	0.092464817	13.56	0.02	7.2	81	1.3	153.12	1	1
Jul84	11.1	0.092464817	13.36	0.05	7.5	81.1	0.2	151.08	1	1
Aug84	11.47	0.092464817	12.72	0.04	7.5	81.1	0.54	164.42	1	1
Sep84	11.35	0.092464817	12.52	0.04	7.3	80.7	-0.3	166.11	1	-1
Oct84	10.36	0.092464817	12.16	0.05	7.4	80.4	-0.77	164.82	1	-1
Nov84	9.48	0.092464817	11.57	0.02	7.2	80.5	-0.5	166.27	1	-1
Dec84	8.64	0.092464817	11.5	0.02	7.3	80.4	-0.76	164.48	1	-1
Jan85	8.16	0.104727	11.38	0.02	7.3	80	-0.04	171.61	1	-1
Feb85	8.36	0.104727	11.51	0.07	7.2	80.2	0.24	180.88	1	1
Mar85	8.53	0.104727	11.86	0.06	7.2	80.1	0.12	179.42	1	1
Apr85	8.43	0.104727	11.43	0.02	7.3	79.9	-0.36	180.62	1	-1
May85	8.02	0.104727	10.85	0.02	7.2	79.8	-0.36	184.9	1	-1
Jun85	7.75	0.104727	10.16	0.03	7.4	79.6	-0.49	188.89	1	-1
Jul85	7.72	0.104727	10.31	0.02	7.4	79	0.72	192.54	1	-1
Aug85	7.78	0.104727	10.33	0.02	7.1	79.2	0.03	188.31	1	1
Sep85	7.98	0.104727	10.37	0.02	7.1	79.3	0.03	184.06	1	1
Oct85	8	0.104727	10.24	0.05	7.1	78.8	0.11	186.18	1	1
Nov85	8	0.104727	9.78	0.06	7	78.9	0.09	197.45	1	0
Dec85	7.89	0.104727	9.26	0.06	7	79.5	0.38	207.26	1	-1
Jan86	7.75	0.086412	9.19	0.04	6.7	79.9	-0.17	208.19	1	-1
Feb86	7.75	0.086412	8.7	-0.02	7.2	79.2	-0.34	219.37	1	0
Mar86	7.35	0.086412	7.78	-0.06	7.2	78.6	-0.45	232.33	1	-1
Apr86	7.05	0.086412	7.3	-0.04	7.1	78.5	-0.56	237.97	1	-1
May86	6.77	0.086412	7.71	0.03	7.2	78.6	-0.22	238.46	1	-1
Jun86	6.87	0.086412	7.8	0.04	7.2	78.3	0.13	245.3	1	-1
Jul86	6.55	0.086412	7.3	0.01	7	78.6	-0.47	240.18	1	-1
Aug86	6.2	0.086412	7.17	0.01	6.9	78.4	-0.52	245	1	-1
Sep86	5.88	0.086412	7.45	0.04	7	78.4	-0.43	238.27	1	-1
Oct86	5.88	0.086412	7.43	0.02	7	78.6	-0.08	237.36	1	0
Nov86	5.88	0.086412	7.25	0.02	6.9	78.9	0.47	245.09	1	0
Dec86	5.98	0.086412	7.11	0.04	6.6	79.5	4.03	248.61	1	1
Jan87	6	0.063844585	7.08	0.07	6.6	78.9	-0.58	264.51	1	1
Feb87	6	0.063844585	7.25	0.04	6.6	79.9	-0.47	280.93	1	0
Mar87	6	0.063844585	7.25	0.04	6.6	79.9	0.06	292.47	1	0
Apr87	6.02	0.063844585	8.02	0.05	6.3	80.3	0.59	289.32	1	1
May87	6.58	0.063844585	8.61	0.03	6.3	80.7	1.39	289.12	1	1
Jun87	6.75	0.063844585	8.4	0.05	6.2	81	-0.19	301.36	1	1
Jul87	6.64	0.063844585	8.45	0.03	6.1	81.4	-0.24	310.09	1	-1
Aug87	6.65	0.063844585	8.76	0.05	6	81.8	0.31	329.36	1	1
Sep87	7.2	0.063844585	9.42	0.04	5.9	81.9	1.32	318.66	1	1
Oct87	7.24	0.063844585	9.52	0.03	6	82.9	0.12	280.16	1	1
Nov87	6.83	0.063844585	8.86	0.04	5.8	83.2	-0.64	245.01	1	-1
Dec87	6.81	0.063844585	8.99	0.02	5.7	83.5	0.15	240.96	1	-1
Jan88	6.79	0.058509479	8.67	0.04	5.7	83.4	0.11	250.48	1	-1
Feb88	6.55	0.058509479	8.21	0.02	5.7	83.8	-0.36	258.13	1	-1
Mar88	6.52	0.058509479	8.37	0.03	5.7	83.9	0	265.74	1	-1
Apr88	6.75	0.058509479	8.72	0.07	5.4	84.2	0.68	262.61	1	1
May88	7	0.058509479	9.09	0.03	5.6	84.1	0.46	256.12	1	1
Jun88	7.33	0.058509479	8.92	0.05	5.4	84.2	0.99	270.68	1	1
Jul88	7.58	0.058509479	9.06	0.05	5.4	84.3	0.46	269.05	1	1
Aug88	8.02	0.058509479	9.26	0.05	5.6	84.7	0.49	263.73	1	1
Sep88	8.13	0.058509479	8.98	0.05	5.4	84.3	0.31	267.97	1	1
Oct88	8.18	0.058509479	8.8	0.04	5.4	84.7	0.17	277.4	1	1
Nov88	8.3	0.058509479	8.96	0.04	5.3	84.8	0.07	271.02	1	1
Dec88	8.55	0.058509479	9.11	0.04	5.3	85	0.78	276.5	1	1
Jan89	8.97	0.069624292	9.1	0.05	5.4	85.2	0.62	285.41	1	1
Feb89	9.26	0.069624292	9.17	0.04	5.2	84.6	0.37	294.01	1	1
Mar89	9.75	0.069624292	9.36	0.06	5	84.7	0.84	292.71	1	1
Apr89	9.75	0.069624292	9.18	0.09	5.2	84.5	-0.01	302.25	1	0
May89	9.8	0.069624292	8.86	0.06	5.2	83.8	-0.04	313.93	1	1
Jun89	9.5	0.069624292	8.28	0.04	5.3	83.7	-0.29	323.73	1	-1
Jul89	9.26	0.069624292	8.02	0.04	5.2	82.7	-0.31	331.92	1	-1
Aug89	9	0.069624292	8.11	-0	5.2	83.3	-0.28	346.61	1	-1
Sep89	9	0.069624292	8.19	0.03	5.3	82.8	0.04	347.33	1	0
Oct89	8.86	0.069624292	8.01	0.06	5.3	82.6	-0.21	347.4	1	-1
Nov89	8.53	0.069624292	7.87	0.05	5.4	82.6	-0.33	340.22	1	-1
Dec89	8.4	0.069624292	7.84	0.04	5.4	83	-0.13	348.57	1	-1
Jan90	8.25	0.067190	8.21	0.12	5.4	82.4	-0.27	339.97	1	-1
Feb90	8.25	0.067190	8.47	0.05	5.3	83	0.01	330.45	1	0
Mar90	8.25	0.067190	8.59	0.06	5.2	83.1	0.06	338.47	1	0
Apr90	8.25	0.067190	8.79	0.03	5.4	83	-0.03	338.18	1	0
May90	8.25	0.067190	8.76	0.02	5.4	82.9	-0.11	350.25	1	0
Jun90	8.25	0.067190	8.48	0.08	5.2	83	0.17	360.39	1	0
Jul90	8.1	0.067190	8.47	0.06	5.5	82.7	-0.18	360.03	1	-1
Aug90	8	0.067190	8.75	0.11	5.7	82.8	-0.03	330.75	1	-1
Sep90	8	0.067190	8.89	0.09	5.9	82.8	0.11	315.41	1	0
Oct90	7.97	0.067190	8.72	0.08	5.9	82.1	-0.12	307.12	1	-1
Nov90	7.6	0.067190	8.39	0.03	6.2	81	-0.36	315.29	1	-1
Dec90	7.19	0.067190	8.08	0.05	6.3	80.3	-0.55	328.75	1	-1
Jan91	6.82	0.058018323	8.09	0.05	6.4	79.8	-0.49	325.49	1	-1
Feb91	6.25	0.058018323	7.85	0.01	6.6	79.1	-0.7	362.26	1	-1
Mar91	6.06	0.058018323	8.11	-0	6.8	78.6	-0.22	372.28	1	-1
Apr91	5.99	0.058018323	8.04	0.03	6.7	78.6	-0.34	379.68	1	-1
May91	5.75	0.058018323	8.07	0.05	6.9	79.3	-0.23	377.99	1	-1
Jun91	5.75	0.058018323	8.28	0.04	6.9	80	0.28	378.29	1	0
Jul91	5.75	0.058018323	8.27	0.02	6.8	79.8	-0.15	380.23	1	0
Aug91	5.53	0.058018323	7.9	0.04	6.9	79.8	-0.28	389.4	1	-1
Sep91	5.36	0.058018323	7.65	0.04	6.9	80.3	-0.36	387.2	1	-1
Oct91	5.24	0.058018323	7.53	0.02	7	80	-0.42	386.88	1	-1
Nov91	4.79	0.058018323	7.42	0.05	7	79.8	-0.62	385.87	1	-1
Dec91	4.36	0.058018323	7.09	0.04	7.3	79.4	-0.63	388.51	1	-1
Jan92	4	0.026813262	7.03	0.01	7.3	78.8	-0.68	416.08	1	-1
Feb92	4	0.026813262	7.34	0.03	7.4	79.4	0.09	412.56	1	0
Mar92	4	0.026813262	7.54	0.04	7.4	79.9	-0.21	407.36	1	0
Apr92	3.82	0.026813262	7.48	0.03	7.4	80.3	-0.54	407.41	1	-1
May92	3.75	0.026813262	7.39	0.03	7.6	80.4	0.33	414.81	1	-1
Jun92	3.75	0.026813262	7.26	0.03	7.8	80.3	-0.17	408.27	1	0
Jul92	3.27	0.026813262	6.84	0.03	7.7	80.8	-0.83	415.05	1	-1
Aug92	3.25	0.026813262	6.59	0.03	7.6	80.4	0.2	417.93	1	-1
Sep92	3.03	0.026813262	6.42	0.03	7.6	80.3	-0.26	418.48	1	-1
Oct92	3	0.026813262	6.59	0.05	7.3	80.8	-0.37	412.5	1	-1
Nov92	3	0.026813262	6.87	0.03	7.4	81.1	-0.04	422.84	1	0
Dec92	3	0.026813262	6.77	0.02	7.4	80.9	-0.49	435.64	1	0
Jan93	3	0.054932103	6.6	0.04	7.3	81.1	0.5	435.23	1	0
Feb93	3	0.054932103	6.26	0.03	7.1	81.3	0.04	441.7	1	0
Mar93	3	0.054932103	5.98	0.02	7	81.3	0.17	450.16	1	0
Apr93	3	0.054932103	5.97	0.04	7.1	81.3	-0.35	443.08	1	0
May93	3	0.054932103	6.04	0.03	7.1	80.9	0.17	445.25	1	0
Jun93	3	0.054932103	5.96	0.01	7	80.9	0.17	448.06	1	0
Jul93	3	0.054932103	5.81	0.02	6.9	81.1	0.08	447.29	1	0
Aug93	3	0.054932103	5.68	0.03	6.8	80.9	-0.11	454.13	1	0
Sep93	3	0.054932103	5.36	0.02	6.7	81.2	0.27	459.24	1	0
Oct93	3	0.054932103	5.33	0.05	6.8	81.6	-0.33	463.9	1	0
Nov93	3	0.054932103	5.72	0.03	6.6	81.8	0.13	462.89	1	0
Dec93	3	0.054932103	5.77	0.02	6.5	82.1	-0.21	465.95	1	0
Jan94	3	0.054590	5.75	-0	6.6	82.4	0.43	472.99	1	0
Feb94	3.21	0.054590	5.97	0.03	6.6	82.3	1.14	471.58	1	1
Mar94	3.34	0.054590	6.48	0.03	6.5	82.8	0.39	463.81	1	1
Apr94	3.62	0.054590	6.97	0.01	6.4	83	1.15	447.23	0	1
May94	4	0.054590	7.18	0.02	6.1	83.3	3.17	450.9	1	1
Jun94	4.25	0.054590	7.1	0.03	6.1	83.6	1.01	454.83	0	1
Jul94	4.25	0.054590	7.3	0.04	6.1	83.5	0.03	451.4	1	0
Aug94	4.51	0.054590	7.24	0.05	6	83.7	0.78	464.24	1	1
Sep94	4.75	0.054590	7.46	0.02	5.9	83.6	0.97	466.96	1	1
Oct94	4.75	0.054590	7.74	0.01	5.8	83.9	0.08	463.81	0	0
Nov94	5.16	0.054590	7.96	0.03	5.6	84.2	2.55	461.01	1	1
Dec94	5.5	0.054590	7.81	0.02	5.5	84.8	0.43	455.19	1	1
Jan95	5.5	0.059746926	7.78	0.03	5.6	84.8	0.19	465.25	1	0
Feb95	6	0.059746926	7.47	0.03	5.4	84.5	1.27	481.92	1	1
Mar95	6	0.059746926	7.2	0.02	5.4	84.2	0.13	493.15	1	0
Apr95	6	0.059746926	7.06	0.05	5.8	83.8	0.15	507.91	0	0
May95	6	0.059746926	6.63	0.02	5.6	83.7	-0.08	523.81	1	0
Jun95	6	0.059746926	6.17	0.02	5.6	83.6	-0.02	539.35	0	0
Jul95	5.79	0.059746926	6.28	0.02	5.7	82.8	-0.26	557.37	1	-1
Aug95	5.75	0.059746926	6.49	0.02	5.7	83.6	-0.2	559.11	1	-1
Sep95	5.75	0.059746926	6.2	0.02	5.6	83.6	0.13	578.77	1	0
Oct95	5.75	0.059746926	6.04	0.03	5.5	83	-0.08	582.92	0	0
Nov95	5.75	0.059746926	5.93	0.02	5.6	82.9	0.09	595.53	1	0
Dec95	5.65	0.059746926	5.71	0.02	5.6	82.9	-0.34	614.57	1	-1
Jan96	5.49	0.050112644	5.65	0.06	5.6	81.9	-0.08	614.42	1	-1
Feb96	5.25	0.050112644	5.81	0.02	5.5	82.6	-0.53	649.54	0	-1
Mar96	5.25	0.050112644	6.27	0.04	5.5	82	0.23	647.07	1	0
Apr96	5.25	0.050112644	6.51	0.05	5.6	82.3	-0.19	647.17	0	0
May96	5.25	0.050112644	6.74	0.02	5.6	82.5	0.05	661.23	1	0
Jun96	5.25	0.050112644	6.91	0.02	5.3	82.8	0.07	668.5	0	0
Jul96	5.25	0.050112644	6.87	0.02	5.5	82.3	0.34	644.07	1	0
Aug96	5.25	0.050112644	6.64	0.02	5.1	82.5	-0.33	662.68	1	0
Sep96	5.25	0.050112644	6.83	0.04	5.2	82.6	0.2	674.88	1	0
Oct96	5.25	0.050112644	6.53	0.04	5.2	82.3	-0.13	701.46	0	0
Nov96	5.25	0.050112644	6.2	0.04	5.4	82.7	0.17	735.67	1	0
Dec96	5.25	0.050112644	6.3	0.03	5.4	82.8	-0.04	743.25	1	0
Jan97	5.25	0.0569061	6.58	0.02	5.3	82.7	-0.09	766.22	0	0
Feb97	5.25	0.0569061	6.42	0.02	5.2	83.5	-0.13	798.39	1	0
Mar97	5.31	0.0569061	6.69	0.01	5.2	83.4	0.57	792.16	1	1
Apr97	5.5	0.0569061	6.89	0.01	5.1	83.4	0.3	763.93	0	1
May97	5.5	0.0569061	6.71	-0	4.9	83.3	-0.02	833.09	1	0
Jun97	5.5	0.0569061	6.49	0.02	5	83.3	0.14	876.29	0	0
Jul97	5.5	0.0569061	6.22	0.02	4.9	83.4	-0.08	925.29	1	0
Aug97	5.5	0.0569061	6.3	0.03	4.8	83.8	0.04	927.74	1	0
Sep97	5.5	0.0569061	6.21	0.03	4.9	84	0	937.02	1	0
Oct97	5.5	0.0569061	6.03	0.02	4.7	84.2	-0.08	951.16	0	0
Nov97	5.5	0.0569061	5.88	0.01	4.6	84.3	0.04	938.92	1	0
Dec97	5.5	0.0569061	5.81	0.01	4.7	84.1	-0.04	962.37	1	0
Jan98	5.5	0.057292922	5.54	0.01	4.6	84	0.14	963.36	0	0
Feb98	5.5	0.057292922	5.57	0	4.6	83.7	-0.1	1023.74	1	0
Mar98	5.5	0.057292922	5.65	0	4.7	83.5	-0.04	1076.83	1	0
Apr98	5.5	0.057292922	5.64	0.01	4.3	83.5	-0.08	1112.2	0	0
May98	5.5	0.057292922	5.65	0.03	4.4	83.4	0.09	1108.42	1	0
Jun98	5.5	0.057292922	5.5	0.01	4.5	82.6	0.16	1108.39	1	0
Jul98	5.5	0.057292922	5.46	0.03	4.5	81.9	-0.04	1156.58	1	0
Aug98	5.5	0.057292922	5.34	0.01	4.5	83.2	0.02	1074.62	1	0
Sep98	5.48	0.057292922	4.81	0.01	4.6	82.6	-0.08	1020.64	1	-1
Oct98	5.11	0.057292922	4.53	0.03	4.5	82.9	-0.63	1032.47	0	-1
Nov98	4.88	0.057292922	4.83	0.01	4.4	82.3	-0.44	1144.43	1	-1
Dec98	4.75	0.057292922	4.65	0.02	4.4	82	-0.32	1190.05	1	-1
Jan99	4.75	0.060271902	4.72	0.02	4.3	82.2	-0.12	1248.77	0	0
Feb99	4.75	0.060271902	5	-0	4.4	82.1	0.39	1246.58	1	0
Mar99	4.75	0.060271902	5.23	0.01	4.2	82.2	0.13	1281.66	1	0
Apr99	4.75	0.060271902	5.18	0.08	4.3	82.1	-0.16	1334.76	0	0
May99	4.75	0.060271902	5.54	0.01	4.2	82.3	0	1332.07	1	0
Jun99	4.76	0.060271902	5.9	-0	4.3	82.1	0.05	1322.55	1	1
Jul99	5	0.060271902	5.79	0.05	4.3	82.3	0.76	1380.99	0	1
Aug99	5.07	0.060271902	5.94	0.03	4.2	82.6	0.21	1327.49	1	1
Sep99	5.25	0.060271902	5.92	0.05	4.2	82.1	0.45	1318.17	0	1
Oct99	5.25	0.060271902	6.11	0.02	4.1	82.7	-0.07	1300.01	1	0
Nov99	5.38	0.060271902	6.03	0.02	4.1	82.8	0.64	1391	1	1
Dec99	5.5	0.060271902	6.28	0.03	4	83.2	-0.24	1428.68	1	1
Jan00	5.5	0.070822299	6.66	0.04	4	82.8	0.4	1425.59	0	0
Feb00	5.74	0.070822299	6.52	0.04	4.1	83	0.82	1388.87	1	1
Mar00	5.85	0.070822299	6.26	0.08	4	83	0.28	1442.21	1	1
Apr00	6	0.070822299	5.99	-0.01	3.8	83.3	0.41	1461.36	0	1
May00	6.26	0.070822299	6.44	0.02	4	83.5	0.63	1418.48	1	1
Jun00	6.5	0.070822299	6.1	0.07	4	83.3	0.63	1461.96	1	1
Jul00	6.5	0.070822299	6.05	0.04	4	82.7	0.02	1473	0	0
Aug00	6.5	0.070822299	5.83	0	4.1	82.3	-0.07	1485.46	1	0
Sep00	6.5	0.070822299	5.8	0.06	4	82.4	0.04	1468.05	0	0
Oct00	6.5	0.070822299	5.74	0.02	3.9	81.8	-0.02	1390.14	1	0
Nov00	6.5	0.070822299	5.72	0.02	3.9	81.5	0	1375.04	1	0
Dec00	6.5	0.070822299	5.24	0.03	3.9	81	-0.18	1330.93	1	0
Jan01	6	0.071655041	5.16	0.07	4.2	80.1	-0.56	1335.63	1	-1
Feb01	5.5	0.071655041	5.1	0.02	4.2	79.5	-0.64	1305.75	0	-1
Mar01	5.3	0.071655041	4.89	0.01	4.3	79	-0.33	1185.85	1	-1
Apr01	4.79	0.071655041	5.14	0.03	4.4	78.6	-0.7	1189.84	1	-1
May01	4.22	0.071655041	5.39	0.06	4.3	78.1	-0.79	1270.37	1	-1
Jun01	3.96	0.071655041	5.28	0.03	4.5	77.5	-0.51	1238.72	1	-1
Jul01	3.75	0.071655041	5.24	-0.03	4.6	77	-0.46	1204.45	0	-1
Aug01	3.65	0.071655041	4.97	0.01	4.9	76.7	-0.32	1178.51	1	-1
Sep01	3.25	0.071655041	4.73	0.04	5	76.1	-0.87	1044.64	0	-1
Oct01	2.52	0.071655041	4.57	-0.03	5.4	75.8	-0.92	1076.59	1	-1
Nov01	2.07	0.071655041	4.65	-0.01	5.6	75.3	-0.88	1129.68	1	-1
Dec01	1.82	0.071655041	5.09	-0.02	5.7	75.1	-0.81	1144.93	1	-1
Jan02	1.75	0.038136095	5.04	0.03	5.6	75.4	-0.46	1140.21	1	-1
Feb02	1.75	0.038136095	4.91	0.02	5.7	75.4	0.07	1100.67	0	0
Mar02	1.75	0.038136095	5.28	0.04	5.7	75.6	-0.07	1153.79	1	0
Apr02	1.75	0.038136095	5.21	0.06	5.9	75.8	0.15	1112.04	0	0
May02	1.75	0.038136095	5.16	0.01	5.8	75.8	-0	1079.27	1	0
Jun02	1.75	0.038136095	4.93	0.01	5.8	76.2	0	1014.05	1	0
Jul02	1.75	0.038136095	4.65	0.03	5.8	76	-0.13	903.59	0	0
Aug02	1.75	0.038136095	4.26	0.03	5.7	75.9	0.07	912.55	1	0
Sep02	1.75	0.038136095	3.87	0.02	5.7	75.7	0.07	867.81	1	0
Oct02	1.75	0.038136095	3.94	0.02	5.7	75.4	-0	854.63	0	0
Nov02	1.32	0.038136095	4.05	0.01	5.9	75.4	-0.96	909.93	1	-1
Dec02	1.25	0.038136095	4.03	0.01	6	74.9	-0.61	899.18	1	-1
Jan03	1.25	0.035528703	4.05	0.04	5.8	75.2	0	895.84	1	0
Feb03	1.25	0.035528703	3.9	0.07	5.9	75.4	0.21	837.62	0	0
Mar03	1.25	0.035528703	3.81	0.05	5.8	74.8	-0.09	846.62	1	0
Apr03	1.25	0.035528703	3.96	-0.04	6	74.2	0.1	890.03	0	0
May03	1.25	0.035528703	3.57	-0.01	6.1	74.1	-0	935.96	1	0
Jun03	1.2	0.035528703	3.33	0.01	6.3	74	-0.32	988	1	-1
Jul03	1	0.035528703	3.98	0.02	6.2	74.5	-0.9	992.54	0	-1
Aug03	1	0.035528703	4.45	0.05	6.1	74.5	0.27	989.53	1	0
Sep03	1	0.035528703	4.27	0.04	6.1	74.9	-0.21	1019.44	1	0
Oct03	1	0.035528703	4.29	-0.01	6	75	0	1038.73	1	0
Nov03	1	0.035528703	4.3	-0.02	5.9	75.7	-0.11	1049.9	0	0
Dec03	1	0.035528703	4.27	0.02	5.7	75.8	-0.22	1080.64	1	0
Jan04	1	0.055290027	4.15	0.06	5.6	76.2	0.27	1132.52	1	0
Feb04	1	0.055290027	4.08	0.03	5.6	76.6	0.13	1143.36	0	0
Mar04	1	0.055290027	3.83	0.06	5.7	76.5	-0.11	1123.98	1	0
Apr04	1	0.055290027	4.35	0.03	5.6	76.9	0	1133.08	0	0
;

run;
     
     proc logistic data=fedfunds outest = betas covout;
       model change=fedtarget demand tenyear inflation unemp capacity fedbias sandp meetings
                    / selection = stepwise
                      slentry = .3
                      slstay = .3
                      details;
       output out=pred p=phat lower=lcl upper=ucl;
     run;
    
	 proc logistic data=fedfunds outest = betas covout;
       model change=fedtarget demand tenyear inflation unemp capacity fedbias sandp meetings
                    / selection = forward
                      slentry = .3
                      slstay = .3
                      details;
       output out=pred p=phat lower=lcl upper=ucl;
     run;

proc print data=pred;
	   
	 run;
    
    
	 proc logistic data=fedfunds outest = betas covout;
       model change=fedtarget demand tenyear inflation unemp capacity fedbias sandp meetings
                    / selection = backward
                      slentry = .3
                      slstay = .3
                      details;
			 test capacity=0,sandp=0;
       output out=pred p=phat lower=lcl upper=ucl;
     run;

	 
  /*  Test statement results from backward selection equation indicates that, jointly
	  speaking, the variables "capacity" and "sandp" are statistically insignificant.
	  Therefore, we will go with the model chosen by the forward (also stepwise)
	  procedure.  That is, we choose the multinomial model that has the explanatory 
	  variables fedbias, unemp, tenyear, and fedtarget.  */