I would like each member of the class to write a 25 page paper based one of the following questions:

(1) "What are some sources of instability in X, and what are the prospects that this source of instability could grow into a pre-revolutionary movement?"

For this option, your task is not to predict revolution, but to identify sources of instability that may lead to a pre-revolutionary situation. In short, you are asking: Where is America going? Your time frame is recent past and present, but what you find may have relevance for the next 20-50 years. I am NOT looking for top of the head, groundless speculation and conjecture; or predictions that are not based on factual trends. I do expect to see both thinking and research, but you can be creative and imaginative.

(2) Analyze a specific international revolution and apply the elements of a theory to explain why it happened and how the theory fits.

For this option, you should:

a. draw from the theories of revolution we covered in class for ideas how to organize your analysis. Use one of them to help you approach the question.

b. use also the concepts we covered, such as "precipitators" and "preconditions."

c. confine yourself to either a political (change of regime) or social revolution. In other words, avoid economic revolutions, because those are largely changes in policy. But even within those confines you have a lot of latitude.

d. focus either on specific elites or specific groups: their roles in society, resources, and their perspectives toward the system. Is that group a source of stability or instability, and what evidence can you use to support your view? So you should aim for focus instead of generality.

e. You could, for example, look at deteriorating economic conditions for a specific group of the population. You could look at terrorist or anti-government violent groups. You could look at the delegitimization of the federal government. Is there growing class division? Are there rival authority groups that are sapping the authority and legitimacy of the government? So, think of a subject that interests you (or concerns you), and then you'll want to look at present conditions, and only at the very end will you analyze the potential of this instability to grow into a revolutionary movement, or will it remain a precondition? In short, begin with the question: Are there any special subjects or concerns you have that you think may destabilize that country in the near future?

f. feel free to consult with me as you start to think about a possible topic.

You will write a proposal for my comments, which will be due shortly after we finish the Theories section. But you need to begin thinking and collecting material NOW.

Also, don't forget to enjoy yourself with this project.